The first round of the NBA playoffs is usually a formality, an opportunity for 55 win teams to show off how much better they are than 46 win ones. That probably won't be the case this year. I can readily see five of the eight series going deep into their second week.
The reason for this is fairly simple; the standings are unusually close. In the Western Conference, only seven games separate the #1 seed Los Angeles Lakers and the #8 seed Oklahoma City Thunder. In the 2-7 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks (2nd) and the San Antonio Spurs (7th), the lower seed has nearly twice the point differential of their higher seeded in state rival. The Western #4 vs. #5 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz features two teams with identical records.
ESPN's John Hollinger, a writer I admire, noted this week that in the first round the higher seeded team with the better regular season record almost always wins these matchups, (41 of the last 41 times), but this season looks like its built for exceptions.
I think Cleveland, Orlando, and Phoenix will breeze into the second round, but the other five series will have the drama of a much later round.
The Utah Denver series will depend entirely on the health of Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin and Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko (Jazz power forward Carlos Boozer is also ailing but the team has a more than adequate backup in Paul Millsap); without knowledge on their availability, the series is too close to call.
The Lakers should find themselves in a tough series against the young, inexperienced Thunder. The Thunder's strength is their perimeter defense; they use their length to deflect passes and create turnovers. The Lakers weakness on offense is spreading the floor (they have no consistent three point shooters presently). I can't see an upset but I'd be surprised if this doesn't go six games.
In the latest edition of the battle of Texas, I can see the Mavericks overcoming the Spurs entirely due to the depth they picked up at the trade deadline when they added Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington. The Mavericks were one of the better teams after the break, though their opposition is somewhat underseeded due to a bad run of injuries.
The Atlanta Hawks won't breeze into the next round but they are significantly better than the Milwaukee Bucks, who are missing their starting center Andrew Bogut. With him, the Bucks could have taken this series seven games, instead it will probably be six.
The Boston Celtics of current vintage usually play a surprisingly dramatic first round series and this season should be no exception. Their matchup with the Miami Heat won't go several overtimes, but it should go seven games. The Celtics staggered to the finish, and the Heat who finished only three games behind Boston were one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. Seeing how Boston defends Dwayne Wade will be the highlight of the first round. This series will only surprise if it doesn't go seven games.
-MJ
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Thursday, December 3, 2009
The Knicks Now
It’s hard for a New York sports team to become nearly invisible in the ubiquitous sports media and irrelevant to all but their most loyal fans, but that’s what the New York Knicks have accomplished this decade. They play on the grandest stage in basketball, Madison Square Garden, but via a remarkable sequence of horrible personnel moves first by Scott Layden then by Isiah Thomas the team has become so bad that mediocrity would merit a banner heading in the New York Times. However, the team’s current state of disarray, a roster littered with unproductive players on long-term contracts, probably suits Team President Donnie Walsh just fine. It gives him a chance to build a Knicks team that is squarely in the tradition of their past champions.
Recently, the team appeared to hit rock bottom. After starting the season with nine losses in ten games, it considered signing free agent guard Allen Iverson, a great player in his prime, but presently a cantankerous, ageing veteran that few other NBA teams regard as worth the trouble, then at the last minute, chose not to. The addition of Iverson would not have turned the Knicks into contenders, but he would have given them a pulse, something that seemed sadly lacking in the team’s efforts early this season as it suffered one double digit defeat after another.
The scenario of watching a lifeless team isn’t new to Knicks fans; during a four year stretch ‘04-’05 through ’07-’08, the team lost nearly two thirds of its games. Rudy Giuliani was still mayor and a rising star in the Republican Party when the team last had a winning season in ’00-‘01. But the Walsh era is supposed to be different. When he took over the team in April 2008, he announced that the team’s goals were to be competitive on the court and to get their payroll far enough under the league’s salary cap so that they could vie for players in the upcoming summer 2010 free agent market, when superstars like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be available.
Selling the notoriously impatient New York City market on the concept of “wait till next year,” is considered a long shot, and Walsh’s concept was more like “wait till the year after next year.” Yet, it worked…for a while. New York basketball fans started dreaming of LeBron in a Knicks uniform like so many children hoping to find the latest cool toy under the Christmas tree. Fans shrugged off the fact that neither James nor Wade nor any other star players were likely to leave a championship contender to join the Knicks, a team that has not qualified for the postseason since 2004. In addition, as much as New Yorkers are proud of their bright lights, location matters less than it used to. NFL star quarterback Peyton Manning, one of the professional athletes with the most endorsement deals, plays in Indianapolis.
Last season those concerns seemed far away as the Knicks played solid basketball for much of the season. New coach Mike D’Antoni installed his uptempo system and the team played with urgency and passion, something not seen in a Knickerbocker jersey in many years. Meanwhile Walsh dramatically overhauled the roster. Almost weekly, players from the Thomas era were sent packing in favor of replacements whose contracts expired before the great summer of 2010. This led to a wellspring of optimism amongst the fan base. It seemed that the plan would work. The Knicks would be an improving team and with that plus the lure of New York City, a superstar would find Gotham irresistible. The giddiness led people to ignore that the final edition of the Knicks roster, wasn’t very good. Last season’s squad went 8-18 in their final 26 games, and it turns out that was merely a prelude to this season’s dreadful first month.
The slow start panicked fans as it effectively puts an end “the plan,” their dreams of a superstar in blue and orange, but it probably doesn’t faze Walsh at all. Although he certainly would like to have a superstar choose to come play for his team, Walsh’s reputation as a leading NBA team executive owes to two decades with the Indiana Pacers where he consistently put winning teams on the floor without following the superstar-and-supporting-cast model of roster construction. Instead, his teams were balanced units of solid contributors.
Walsh, who is 68, was born and raised in New York; he probably has vivid memories of the Knicks title era in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s. Those teams were also “ensemble” teams rather than superstar plus supporting players. Back in the early ‘70s, New Yorkers took great pride in that fact. Rival teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and the Milwaukee Bucks had superstars, bur the Knicks won with a cohesive, ego-less unit.
Now, as what will probably be his final act in the workplace, Walsh is set to try and build a winner in New York that is squarely in the model of the teams that still cast a long shadow today. It would explain Walsh’s draft strategy, which has avoided high risk/high reward players like Brandon Jennings, a rookie for the Milwaukee Bucks who scored 55 points in only his seventh game in the league. And, it is why he would choose against signing Iverson. He understands that the Garden has had its fill of players who are superstars in their own minds like Stephon Marbury, Stevie Francis, and Zach Randolph. The Knicks of 2010-’11 are far from set, but what little we’ve seen indicates that Walsh is going to pursue players who are stars in the very best Knicks tradition. It’s an ambitious plan, but under these dire circumstances, it’s probably the only one that can work.
Recently, the team appeared to hit rock bottom. After starting the season with nine losses in ten games, it considered signing free agent guard Allen Iverson, a great player in his prime, but presently a cantankerous, ageing veteran that few other NBA teams regard as worth the trouble, then at the last minute, chose not to. The addition of Iverson would not have turned the Knicks into contenders, but he would have given them a pulse, something that seemed sadly lacking in the team’s efforts early this season as it suffered one double digit defeat after another.
The scenario of watching a lifeless team isn’t new to Knicks fans; during a four year stretch ‘04-’05 through ’07-’08, the team lost nearly two thirds of its games. Rudy Giuliani was still mayor and a rising star in the Republican Party when the team last had a winning season in ’00-‘01. But the Walsh era is supposed to be different. When he took over the team in April 2008, he announced that the team’s goals were to be competitive on the court and to get their payroll far enough under the league’s salary cap so that they could vie for players in the upcoming summer 2010 free agent market, when superstars like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be available.
Selling the notoriously impatient New York City market on the concept of “wait till next year,” is considered a long shot, and Walsh’s concept was more like “wait till the year after next year.” Yet, it worked…for a while. New York basketball fans started dreaming of LeBron in a Knicks uniform like so many children hoping to find the latest cool toy under the Christmas tree. Fans shrugged off the fact that neither James nor Wade nor any other star players were likely to leave a championship contender to join the Knicks, a team that has not qualified for the postseason since 2004. In addition, as much as New Yorkers are proud of their bright lights, location matters less than it used to. NFL star quarterback Peyton Manning, one of the professional athletes with the most endorsement deals, plays in Indianapolis.
Last season those concerns seemed far away as the Knicks played solid basketball for much of the season. New coach Mike D’Antoni installed his uptempo system and the team played with urgency and passion, something not seen in a Knickerbocker jersey in many years. Meanwhile Walsh dramatically overhauled the roster. Almost weekly, players from the Thomas era were sent packing in favor of replacements whose contracts expired before the great summer of 2010. This led to a wellspring of optimism amongst the fan base. It seemed that the plan would work. The Knicks would be an improving team and with that plus the lure of New York City, a superstar would find Gotham irresistible. The giddiness led people to ignore that the final edition of the Knicks roster, wasn’t very good. Last season’s squad went 8-18 in their final 26 games, and it turns out that was merely a prelude to this season’s dreadful first month.
The slow start panicked fans as it effectively puts an end “the plan,” their dreams of a superstar in blue and orange, but it probably doesn’t faze Walsh at all. Although he certainly would like to have a superstar choose to come play for his team, Walsh’s reputation as a leading NBA team executive owes to two decades with the Indiana Pacers where he consistently put winning teams on the floor without following the superstar-and-supporting-cast model of roster construction. Instead, his teams were balanced units of solid contributors.
Walsh, who is 68, was born and raised in New York; he probably has vivid memories of the Knicks title era in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s. Those teams were also “ensemble” teams rather than superstar plus supporting players. Back in the early ‘70s, New Yorkers took great pride in that fact. Rival teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and the Milwaukee Bucks had superstars, bur the Knicks won with a cohesive, ego-less unit.
Now, as what will probably be his final act in the workplace, Walsh is set to try and build a winner in New York that is squarely in the model of the teams that still cast a long shadow today. It would explain Walsh’s draft strategy, which has avoided high risk/high reward players like Brandon Jennings, a rookie for the Milwaukee Bucks who scored 55 points in only his seventh game in the league. And, it is why he would choose against signing Iverson. He understands that the Garden has had its fill of players who are superstars in their own minds like Stephon Marbury, Stevie Francis, and Zach Randolph. The Knicks of 2010-’11 are far from set, but what little we’ve seen indicates that Walsh is going to pursue players who are stars in the very best Knicks tradition. It’s an ambitious plan, but under these dire circumstances, it’s probably the only one that can work.
Monday, February 9, 2009
NFL and NBA at The Root
On the whether the rise of black NFL coaches is sustainable
http://www.theroot.com/views/black-coaches-now-what
On basketball's new superstar, Kevin Durant
http://www.theroot.com/views/durant-durant
-MJ
http://www.theroot.com/views/black-coaches-now-what
On basketball's new superstar, Kevin Durant
http://www.theroot.com/views/durant-durant
-MJ
Sunday, January 18, 2009
The Orlando Magic
I thought the Magic would be a good investment, and now that they are on a seven game winning streak, including four in a row out west (and a victim list that includes the Lakers, Nuggets and Spurs), the only thing left is to see if they can hold home court against Boston (01.22) and Cleveland (01.29). If they do--and of course, barring injury--Magic fans should harbor championship dreams.
-MJ
-MJ
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The NBA Xmas Day Marathon
I saw the danger, but didn't anticipate it. There were five NBA games scheduled for Christmas Day and I planned to be in most of the day housecleaning and cooking (the fish came out nicely; the veal chop was a revelation but the brussels sprouts roasted in maple, lemon and fresh thyme was the screaming down the lane 360 degree spin slam dunk of the day). I planned to watch Boston-L.A. and figured I'd watch bits and pieces of the other four games if they were interesting. For the most part, they were. As a result I spent Christmas with the tube on NBA for nine straight hours and feel better off for it. Some notes.
Boston - L.A.
Well, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing these two teams meet seven or eight more times. While watching the game and checking popcorn machine later, it seemed that the difference was that L.A.'s bench badly outplayed the Celtic bench, and that Fisher and Allen neutralized one another, which is a big advantage to the Lakers. Not that this is a big surprise, but Jackson outcoached Rivers. Several of those Gasol baskets down the stretch came after Doc subbed Eddie House for Perkins. Doc should have kept the small lineup on a short leash. The Lakers big men had had subpar games to that point, but Jackson didn't forget that they were in the game.
Lastly, I was intrigued by Kobe. Several times during the contest he called for the ball but didn't get it. Then with the ball in his hands repeatedly down the stretch of a close game, he passed to Gasol who had a better shot.
Make plans for February 5 when these teams meet again in Boston.
Phoenix-San Antonio
One point games come down to lots of things but in this case, the final play, in which Roger Mason nailed a three at the buzzer is what matters most. Plain and simple: Jason Richardson, who is an asset to the Suns, made a bonehead play rotating off of Mason to double team Tony Parker. Mason is lethal from behind the arc. Parker was already bottled up by Grant Hill.
Washington-Cleveland
The Wizards played like they had this game circled on their calendar for a long time. They didn't look like a 4-22 team. If Mike James plays half this well going forward, the Wizards will be respectable for the last two thirds of the season. Cleveland was the beneficiary of several hometown calls; Cleveland, welcome to the elite.
Dallas-Portland
The Mavericks are a better team than they are given credit for and if healthy, they will scare the beejeezus out of someone in the playoffs. Jose Barea is the best backup point guard in the West and he may have the Mavs dreaming of life without Jason Kidd's salary on the books. New coach Rick Carlisle has done a good job of mixing and matching from a bench full of young inconsistent players.
The Portland offense is designed to have a dominant inside scorer. On nights when Greg Oden isn't that guy, they are going stumble a bit. They shouldn't; there's talent on this team to play in a variety of styles, but Nate McMillan doesn't seem interested in offensive diversity right now. Maybe if Denver wins a few in a row...
Orlando-New Orleans
I flipped it on near halftime and was happy to see that it was a rout. Otherwise, I would never have gotten out and exercised.
Boston - L.A.
Well, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing these two teams meet seven or eight more times. While watching the game and checking popcorn machine later, it seemed that the difference was that L.A.'s bench badly outplayed the Celtic bench, and that Fisher and Allen neutralized one another, which is a big advantage to the Lakers. Not that this is a big surprise, but Jackson outcoached Rivers. Several of those Gasol baskets down the stretch came after Doc subbed Eddie House for Perkins. Doc should have kept the small lineup on a short leash. The Lakers big men had had subpar games to that point, but Jackson didn't forget that they were in the game.
Lastly, I was intrigued by Kobe. Several times during the contest he called for the ball but didn't get it. Then with the ball in his hands repeatedly down the stretch of a close game, he passed to Gasol who had a better shot.
Make plans for February 5 when these teams meet again in Boston.
Phoenix-San Antonio
One point games come down to lots of things but in this case, the final play, in which Roger Mason nailed a three at the buzzer is what matters most. Plain and simple: Jason Richardson, who is an asset to the Suns, made a bonehead play rotating off of Mason to double team Tony Parker. Mason is lethal from behind the arc. Parker was already bottled up by Grant Hill.
Washington-Cleveland
The Wizards played like they had this game circled on their calendar for a long time. They didn't look like a 4-22 team. If Mike James plays half this well going forward, the Wizards will be respectable for the last two thirds of the season. Cleveland was the beneficiary of several hometown calls; Cleveland, welcome to the elite.
Dallas-Portland
The Mavericks are a better team than they are given credit for and if healthy, they will scare the beejeezus out of someone in the playoffs. Jose Barea is the best backup point guard in the West and he may have the Mavs dreaming of life without Jason Kidd's salary on the books. New coach Rick Carlisle has done a good job of mixing and matching from a bench full of young inconsistent players.
The Portland offense is designed to have a dominant inside scorer. On nights when Greg Oden isn't that guy, they are going stumble a bit. They shouldn't; there's talent on this team to play in a variety of styles, but Nate McMillan doesn't seem interested in offensive diversity right now. Maybe if Denver wins a few in a row...
Orlando-New Orleans
I flipped it on near halftime and was happy to see that it was a rout. Otherwise, I would never have gotten out and exercised.
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